What’s the next big thing — many of us ask themselves this question. How do we predict how trends will shape in the future so we can be on the cutting edge — and presumably benefit from it?

A big problem with predicting a new trend is that we are fundamentally shaped by the current one. Just like revolutions are as much a result of an individual’s actions as the pressure from the Zeitgeist, our collective behaviors define a trend. Moreover, we are not really aware of being a part of a trend, which makes it very difficult to step outside of the proverbial box.

Let’s use an example. My generation defines several trends, most of which we are probably not aware of. First, there is a huge movement towards a hyperconnected-but-also-hyperisolated life. We don’t use land lines anymore. Email is the preferred method of communication — most times you can get a faster response by sending an email than by calling someone (this generational gap is most evident with the software vendors I interact with at work — a funny pattern emerges, where they call me and I email them back). More and more of us are eating well. CNN only makes us angry (recently I realized that ESPN is a much preferred station to watch at lunch despite the subject matter). This happens. Most of the time we don’t stop to think about all these things that are our everyday tasks; but it is exactly these things that draw us to social networking sites like Facebook. Twitter is another great example of a product that capitalizes on the schism between hyperconnectedness (you use Twitter to blast information about yourself to the entire world) and hyperisolation (you use Twitter to blast information about yourself to the entire world). The fact that I’m not quite sure what to call this trend shows how difficult it is to define it.

So if you want to create the next big thing, the thing that will be the next trend setter, you have to first understand the current trend. That’s not enough, though. Twitter started operation in 2006. It’s fascinating that a product which I hypothesized my generation is already too old for was created at the peak of what I believed to be my capacity for cultural absorption. This means that the things you’re thinking about as “the next big things” are probably already behind the new trend. It’s a little bit like sitting in traffic: you see cars moving faster in the lane next to you so you quickly switch lanes hoping to move faster. But to your frustration, you end up moving slower. This is because when you came up with the idea to switch lanes, statistically most other drivers had already done so so you’re just lagging behind and receiving the due punishment — joining the lane that is about to slow down to a crawl while opening the lane you were just in for the new trendsetters.

So what should we do? When you understand the Zeitgeist and finally come up with an idea for the next big thing, think about what the big thing after that would be.