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Archive for the ‘changes/cyclical’ Category

I’m on Twitter.

Friday, December 9th, 2011

Yes, as of recently, I’m on Twitter. I decided to join not out of need or curiosity or the desire to fit in or seem like I know social media or seem like I’m up to speed on technology, but because I decided to open up to the idea that Twitter may actually be useful in allowing me to communicate effectively — let me share my ideas better, let them reach people better.

Twitter (just as any tool, really, and especially just as any platform) is used improperly all the time. By “improperly” I mean used in ways that it wasn’t meant to be used, or in ways that obscure its truly revolutionary, game-changing, unique purpose. I believe that Twitter is unique in that it allows individuals (and groups) to broadcast their thoughts, opinions, reflections (broadly speaking, information) in a lightweight way, and with support for consuming that information.

In other words, As a subscriber, I don’t want articles. I want headlines. And I want them delivered to my doorstep.

The constraint to keep the broadcast lightweight is crucial precisely because we’re letting people broadcast — if the information is too verbose, its sheer volume will make the platform useless. And support for consuming the information lowers the bar for subscriptions. If the information is hard to get, people won’t bother managing their subscriptions.

So yes, I could just have a blog, but by its virtue it will likely contain longer bits of information; and there is no easy way for people to follow my blog unless they subscribe in some way, which will likely be too heavyweight for the number of subscriptions they will likely be maintaining (many of their friends, figures of authority that they trust, companies that they think of, etc.).

Now, a headline might pique your curiosity and then you may want to read more. Twitter supports URLs, which is great. I can have my cake — allow lots of people to go through my content really quickly (so they can go through others’ content too) — and eat it too — still be able to express myself fully.

This blog has a natural connection to Twitter. Many of my posts are snippets of opinion with added context. I should be able to synthesize most of them into something bite-sized. Twitter will create a contract between me and people who may be interested in what I have to say that gives me a scalable forum, and gives them the peace of mind that the content won’t be too time-consuming to get to. I had better be good at synthesizing my content, but it is a great skill to have anyway. In a way, Twitter makes information delivery more democratic.

Of course, that’s not how Twitter is used to a large extent. I think that’s fine — many platforms are abused in some form or another, and different platforms may tolerate different volume of abuse. Since Twitter has such a clear contract, I am okay tolerating abuse because if I do a good job, people who I care about will easily be able to separate me from noise and so I will be able to maximize who I reach out to.

Carry-on Luggage? Think again.

Monday, November 28th, 2011

It’s saddening that flying has become something akin to colonoscopy – a necessary agony. I don’t know enough to have an opinion on whether I blame the airplane companies for this (who, due to the high barrier of entry, have become near-monopolies and thus don’t innovate and worry only about cost-cutting) or the government (which imposes all these rules and fees on the airline companies) or the industry itself (it’s just bound to suck).

The newest annoyance (or maybe the newest for me as previously I haven’t felt the pain) is the airlines’ decision to charge for checked luggage which incentivizes everyone on the flight to carry large carry-ons. Combined with densely packed seats, this means that there is no room for all the carry-ons on the plane so some passengers are forced to check their carry-on in. Which sucks if you have things in your carry-on that can get damaged, if you don’t want to incur additional delay at arrival, hate how the baggage is handled, worry about it being lost or stolen, and so on — I’m sure the list goes on.

The most annoying thing? Somehow airlines didn’t think it fair to randomize the selection of carry-ons so those in later groups always get penalized while those in group 2 almost never do.

The Afterlife

Thursday, October 27th, 2011

The best thing about the afterlife is that you can’t reason about it, because life after death is not pertinent to our domain of knowledge. Any “existence” after life would not be existence as we know it, and we wouldn’t be able to define it because it occupies a different realm (not in the supernatural sense, but in the sense of a knowledge base).

When we die, our physical manifestations – what we call our bodies (the physical medium that contains our consciousness and the vehicle that we can most precisely control) – cease to exist. The body disintegrates, and our earthly consciousness — which, I’m beginning to believe more and more strongly, is the recallable continuity of our interaction with the world that surrounds us — ends as well because we are no longer capable of interacting with the world or creating memories. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that there is nothing after death. We just can’t define what it is.

The way I like to think about the afterlife is an extrapolation of a feeling that sometimes overcomes me, a feeling so immense that I momentarily forget what I am supposed to be doing, where I am, even who I am. It’s just a flash, but in that moment I am pure existence.

The Fall of the Scientific Method

Thursday, October 27th, 2011

I believe the Scientific Method is, if not becoming irrelevant, at least losing its prominence in discourse throughout the world. As anything in the history of the world, this is just a cyclical movement, but I think we’re about to witness an inflection point.

Biased by the local version of history, we forget that the Scientific Method is only one possible paradigm of reasoning, one that particularly suited humans who found themselves in the Age of Invention and Exploration. When the number of phenomena being discovered is large and each strengthens the fundamental theories put in place, the Scientific Method feels adequate.

The Scientific Method is — my amateur definition follows — the process of rejecting theories through observed contradictory experimental evidence. Synonymous with modern science, it can’t prove anything about the world we live in. It can only evaluate theories for how bad they are.

People tend to forget that even the Ancient Greeks — our model of scientific thought — believed in reasoning that is a combination of the supernatural (mythos) and the rational (logos). For a long time, we have overemphasized the latter, dismissing alternative approaches to understanding reality, but as science turns strange and more distant, I believe we will begin looking for a basis of our understanding that isn’t rooted strictly in observation and rejection of theories.

Science is turning strange. To see this, let’s go back to 1905. The world was a fundamentally different place. All motion in the Universe was governed by a few simple rules first formulated by Newton. Mathematicians believed that every statement about the world can be proven or disproven (shown to be false, of course). We just learned to fly. We built automobiles and submarines, harnessed electricity, and were beginning to understand radioactivity. Maxwell unified our understanding of most of physics into an elegant set of equations.

Today, our laws — even the simple laws of motion — are more complicated. Sure, at low speeds they reduce to Newton’s beautiful equations, but this nonlinearity doesn’t give us much confidence that there is no third-order consequence, and beyond, that we’re simply yet unable to detect. Perhaps the rules that govern how the universe works are unknowable. Moreover, universe is already known to be unpredictable, in addition to being possibly inscrutable. Particles are in a number of states at the same time. The more we refine our models following observations which refute our hypotheses, the more science begins to look like, well, magic. And while we don’t readily admit it, I (and I am sure you, too) feel disappointed by it.

Science is also turning more distant. Many of the advances in physics don’t concern us beyond the drama of popular science narrative. It’s unlikely we’ll directly benefit from the discovery of the Higgs particle, but even if we eventually do (after all, DVDs wouldn’t be possible without Einstein, and his revelations seemed “unpractical” enough), we are adding layers of indirection between our theories and our lives.

Instead of focusing on observations, we can listen to our intuition (what feels right?), our sense of beauty (what is elegant?), or even simply focus more on fundamental phenomena and reason about what is not easily unobservable (what is entropy, exactly? What could the underlying cause of the Universe increasing in complexity be?). Doing this would not necessarily be equivalent to a rejection of logic — I simply advocate for us to go back to the axioms that we base our knowledge base on and revisit them. Once we settle on our axioms, we should absolutely use logic to deduce truths about the world. BUt that first step is crucial in defining what kind of truths we will discover.

Why would the rejection of the Scientific Method be good for us? For one, it may actually teach us something about the universe. Instead of tweaking existing theories, which are increasing in complexity and losing their elegance, we may be able to think outside the box: take an alternative approach, rethink everything we know about the universe, and settle on a much more intuitive and legible understanding.

A painful consequence of my philosophy

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

A big problem with biking in Central Park is everyone else using the circuit, but especially pedestrians and joggers crossing the road, and casual bikers.

Riding defensively (slowing down near any pedestrian and casual biker, assuming that everyone is an idiot and will make a sudden move towards traffic) is simply impractical. It was my initial approach, but very quickly I realized that the resulting stop-go motion takes away from the entire pleasure of biking and defeats the purpose of having a circuit to bike on.

The fact is, you only have about one second to figure out if the person in the danger zone is an idiot (not paying attention), an asshole (having a sense of entitlement to think everyone else will move aside), or just efficient (is well aware of the surrounding and is in control of the path to ensure a collision will not occur). It’s harder than it seems.

In my desire to implement my philosophy of “commonsense right of way” I let the pendulum swing too far. A bruised tail bone and a whimpering jogger on the ground later, I was forced to revisit my approach.

  • Assume the other person is deaf. That was effectively the case with the aforementioned jogger who had her music blasting on at full volume. Or purchase a really loud bike horn (is there even such a thing?).
  • Watch out for signs of idiocy — a cyclist moving at 3 mph, swerving left and right, a jogger crossing the road in a direction almost parallel with the flow of traffic, a biker slowing down (they usually do rapid 90 degree turns, having gotten bored with riding their bike), people riding these rented tourist bikes

Technology in Overdrive

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

It’s easy to get blasé about it, but if you stop to think about it, technology truly is in overdrive.

If you subscribe to technology blogs, you’ll know what I mean — the sense of being bombarded by new technologies, tools, gadgets, advances, and ideas. If you don’t and you buy technology magazines, you’re out of the loop already because these magazines are obsolete the day they come out.

It seems that new generations of computers and phones come out every year (this is certainly true with Apple products). In fact, technology products are now designed to last a very short time — battery that you can’t replace, OS updates that cripple old hardware — as opposed to the years or even decades that old casette players or even first CD players (my dad is a proud owner of one of those) used to serve their owners.

New standards coming out and adopting the philosophy of more rapid change — HTML 5, for example, is now a rolling standard. This will very likely push software and hardware makers to iterate more on their products.

Technology is creating a world where you have to sprint all the time because if you don’t, you’ll get left behind. This is true for the product makers, but also for the customers.

But what has changed, really? Magazines were out of date before, too, but somehow nobody cared. Vendors had their release schedules that were mostly unaffected by the higher level products’ release schedules. It seems that we want to have the information available to us sooner, in some strange kind of arms race, almost like the high frequency trading companies or news corporations.

More rapid iterations may seem to be accelerating progress, which is a good thing, but they may also introduce much more noise to the system. We’ll be so consumed with consuming the latest that we’ll lose sight of where we’re going.

Evolution of Systems

Saturday, May 14th, 2011

Looking at any system, any process, or anything that can be described as a black box with inputs and outputs, I can’t help but notice a distinct, linear progression, directed with a profound and powerful underlying idea that systems tend to increase in complexity naturally.

When a system is born, it is small and vulnerable. It makes many mistakes and may fail easily, but if it doesn’t, it adapts and quickly becomes better and grows in its capabilities. It remains easy to grasp mostly because of its size.

Over time it increases the number of degrees of freedom it can handle.

At some point the mechanics of the system become more like an art — it has enough degrees of freedom, and is stable enough to experiment with its controls. In this highly creative stage, it truly defines itself.

Size is the primary enemy of art so as the system becomes more complex and bigger, its systemization begins. The experimentation gives way to proceduralization, and as some of its outputs are deemed more valuable than others, they are commoditized.

After systemization, these systems focus narrowly on maximizing efficiency of these designated outputs.

The final stage is a natural consequence of specialization and optimization — the system begins to rely on its optimizations. Small deviations in output become costly, as are small deviations in input. Since no system exists in a vacuum, eventually every system becomes irrelevant as the world around it changes. The system dies (a death of explosion if its construction or attrition).

You have seen this evolution everywhere — companies begin their life as small startups that can likely fail but are also agile and productive. As they gain confidence in their status and stability, they begin their creative phase — a killer feature, or a risky but profitable expansion into an unlikely market. Once they turn into corporations, ad hoc work becomes proceduralized, the company is too large to quickly adapt so it focuses on what it does best. Once that’s defined, it minimizes costs. But the industry changes and the corporation, too large to change its operating models, becomes irrelevant. Just think of what happened to Blockbuster’s.

We can expand this to TV shows. A new show much catch the eye. It’s simple and has a small base of supporters. It can change rapidly based on early feedback, but it also plays with its characters to gauge viewers’ reactions. As it gets big, it is doomed to repeat the same tricks, the same lines, the same plot twists, because that’s what the viewers are used to, and it’s difficult to change in a way that doesn’t turn a large portion of the audience off. It becomes formulaic — it has its distinctive style, and it’s no longer creative. As the viewers change their tastes (or as one generation is replaced by another), the show becomes irrelevant and eventually gets cancelled.

This is also true with people, though with some parallels (for example, death means irrelevance to society; systemization means having a daily routine, having a rigid set of preferences).

The best systems can resist this progression for a long time — by remaining agile, maintaining its growth through compartmentalization and appropriate scaling, and maintaining a careful equilibrium between death of attrition (irrelevance) and death of destruction.

Life expectancy and the desire for peace

Monday, May 9th, 2011

Is there a relationship between life expectancy in a society and its desire to maintain peace? Could it be that the younger the population, the more temperamental it is and so the more likely it is to wage wars?

Or is being peaceloving a trait that comes with the sophistication of a society brought about by greater literacy, education, and made possible with better health and nutrition?

Or is it simply a fluke and future generations will be just as violent as the prior ones have been?

Honesty

Sunday, March 20th, 2011

Each generation brings different values into the world. Usually these values are a reflection of the world in which the generation was brought up, as well as, in many cases, a reaction to the values of their parents’ generation.

Talking to my friends in business school and slightly older friends who are beginning to take on more meaningful positions in the industry, I am beginning to realize that my generation will bring more honesty into the world. Between the trend to be more socially and environment conscious, it seems that it’s a less selfish generation — concerned about the good of the whole as well as one’s own — and with selflessness comes honesty and integrity.

Technology Sucks

Monday, January 24th, 2011

I complain about technology all the time. I hate how involved I have to be in it to enjoy it. Software patches, Blue Screens of Death, different file formats, lack of universal connectivity — these are all the symptoms of technology that is not the technology of the future. If you have the pleasure of dealing with technology in an enterprise, the situation there looks even more dismal: layers and layers of abstraction akwardly strung together, preventing us from ever forgetting about the bottommost layer. (Technology consumers–especially (at least before Apple started hurrying and cutting corners everywhere) Mac users, you have no idea how lucky you are!)

Why do I have to quit iTunes before proceeding with an update or restart my computer afterwards? Why can’t my application know it’s broken, automatically fix itself and update itself?

But then I add some perspective to this problem — we cringe in fear when we hear about hand-punched cards that ended in machine code the instructions needed to multiply two numbers. I am not that old, but when I tell my friends about loading programs from cassette tapes and having to number each line of my program, they give me a pitying look. Technology is getting better, and its only sin is giving us the glimpse of its potential.

The future is very exciting indeed.